Monday, February 25, 2008

Global warming: real science vs. hype

As suggested below, there is no "consensus" on global warming. The debate is not over, despite what Al Gore says.

While most of the media has been content to simply echo the junk science Gore and his cohorts have been pushing, there have been signs lately that some in the media have started doing some fact checking:
Forget global warming: Welcome to the new Ice Age

Lorne Gunter, National Post
Published: Monday, February 25, 2008


[R]emember the Artic Ice? The ice we were told so hysterically last fall had melted to its "lowest levels on record? Never mind that those records only date back as far as 1972 and that there is anthropological and geological evidence of much greater melts in the past.

The ice is back.

Gilles Langis, a senior forecaster with the Canadian Ice Service in Ottawa, says the Arctic winter has been so severe the ice has not only recovered, it is actually 10 to 20 cm thicker in many places than at this time last year.



According to Robert Toggweiler of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory at Princeton University and Joellen Russell, assistant professor of biogeochemical dynamics at the University of Arizona -- two prominent climate modellers -- the computer models that show polar ice-melt cooling the oceans, stopping the circulation of warm equatorial water to northern latitudes and triggering another Ice Age (a la the movie The Day After Tomorrow) are all wrong.

"We missed what was right in front of our eyes," says Prof. Russell. It's not ice melt but rather wind circulation that drives ocean currents northward from the tropics. Climate models until now have not properly accounted for the wind's effects on ocean circulation, so researchers have compensated by over-emphasizing the role of manmade warming on polar ice melt.

But when Profs. Toggweiler and Russell rejigged their model to include the 40-year cycle of winds away from the equator (then back towards it again), the role of ocean currents bringing warm southern waters to the north was obvious in the current Arctic warming.



Last month, Oleg Sorokhtin, a fellow of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences, shrugged off manmade climate change as "a drop in the bucket." Showing that solar activity has entered an inactive phase, Prof. Sorokhtin advised people to "stock up on fur coats."

He is not alone. Kenneth Tapping of our own National Research Council, who oversees a giant radio telescope focused on the sun, is convinced we are in for a long period of severely cold weather if sunspot activity does not pick up soon.

The last time the sun was this inactive, Earth suffered the Little Ice Age that lasted about five centuries and ended in 1850. Crops failed through killer frosts and drought. Famine, plague and war were widespread. Harbours froze, so did rivers, and trade ceased.
No, this doesn't mean we are heading for another ice age--despite the article's headline. But it's an important reminder that global climate is a complex system. No one understands it. No one can predict what things will be like next century (or next week, as far as New England goes).

It's entirely irresponsible for Al Gore and his "warmers" to be whipping the whole world into a doomsday frenzy that would have us destroying our economies and causing calamities in its own right. What is needed is that we continue to collect, analyze, share, and discuss data in a calm, rational way. That will allow us to react appropriately once we've determined what it is we are reacting to.

All else is propaganda, meant to shift power and sell newspapers.

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